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Forex Secrets - Developing The Anti-Chaos Trading Strategy And Tactics At Forex Market (Part II)(See beginning of this article under name Forex Secrets - Developing the "anti-chaos" trading strategy and tactics at Forex market (Part I)
It is horrible to imagine what could happen to USD rate at the spontaneous market in this case. At the controllable market of Forex USD rate would fall down just by 1-2%.
I hope that my opponents, who deny the existence of a system controlling Forex market, do remember the elementary economical laws. The spontaneous market is a barometer that establishes the real price of goods on the basis of the demand and supply (in the given case, it is the real rate of exchange of any national currency).
The Episode #2 . The hurricane "Katrina" and the flood in USA on September 7, 2005. USD rate stably increases. Chronicle of events.
As the result of the dam (dike) debacle, several states in USA become submerged. The industry, agriculture and transport network were destroyed. There started panic not only among common inhabitants but among officials of various ranks as well. Hundreds and thousands of people perished. There were cases of looting. Many looters (and, maybe, just desperately hungry and thirsty people) were shot by soldiers of USA army. The government of USA declared this hurricane to be a disaster on a national scale. For the first time a new plan of civic defense was introduced (see "BBC. The total chronicle of events").
"Katrina" was bringing USA to ruin. Senators from Louisiana asked $250 milliards from the federal budget for getting over "Katrina" after-effects.
Thus, it is an illustrative example of the greatest natural cataclysms in USA in the last decades. Even the poorest country in the world - Haiti - provided the financial help for USA ($ 36 thousands). The help of Ukraine made 1 million of hrivnias , etc.
What did happen to USD rate at the controllable Forex market? Notwithstanding all economical laws and even against the common sense, USD rate increased!
Chart 8.7. EURO/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 8.8. GBP/USD pair movement (For view picture see notes in end of article)
Brief conclusions for traders .
As I think, the thesis that Forex has turned from the spontaneous market to the controllable one does not need further proofs. Hence, traders must introduce amendments into strategy and tactic of their work at Forex.
What are the conclusions, significant for traders, logically follow from these facts?
Under the new conditions of the controllable market, a trader must not follow the "crowd" (flock). As B. Williams, A. Elder and many other authors have fairly emphasized, the "crowd" pushes the price at any spontaneous market. On the contrary, at the organized Forex market orders must be opened in advance of Consortium's interests!
I try to find the core of a good sense in each technique of the successful work at Forex . Is it necessary to rediscover the well-known principles? There are many prosperous traders who openly and honestly present their methods of gaining profits at Forex . If their techniques are successful, it means that these authors have a thorough grasp of the problem in its essence.
However, in practice, each of the techniques sometimes brings profits, whereas in other cases it is disadvantageous. And it does not matter, whether this technique is developed by B. Williams or by a not celebrated but a successful trader.
Conclusion #1. It is necessary to clearly delineate the domains where a given technique does work and where it fails (as well as the corresponding reasons). In such a way we can clearly understand what of the method by a given trader is worthwhile to be used - as well as how and when to make advantage of it for our work at Forex .
Conclusion #2 . Your trading system must not be just a mixture (farrago) of various techniques. This rule is especially important for the beginners. After reading heaps of books on Forex , all of them make complaints about "such a mess in their heads instead of enlightenment".
Conclusion #3. A trader must develop his own trading system. In order to gain profit, the following steps must be taken:
a. you choose just any technique developed by any author-trader (e.g., mine or B. Williams's, or somebody's else);
b. you must get used to work with the demo account according to this technique to such extent of automatism that you "sense' it as your own initial (original) trading system of the work at Forex
c. Only after this you should start to study additional literature. You must clearly see what pointes, "borrowed" from other authors, can help you personally to work at Forex , to improve your trading system for getting extra profits.
Objectiveness of Forex turning from the spontaneous market into the controllable one. The pattern of this process
Any profitable business transits from the spontaneous to the controllable one. It is an objective stage in the evolution of business undertakings.
In each branch of a big and super profitable business the initial stage of the chaotic competitive straggle is already has been passed through (petroleum, gas, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, precious metals, arms traffic, etc.). At present all these areas are definitely divided between the principal participants. That is, there exist certain financially-industrial groupings, well-controllable and protected from intrusion of a concurrent.
The same concerns the biggest and most conservative area of business - i.e., its financial branch, the world market of currency exchange included. Can it be otherwise? Can "Chaos" rule the market where the turnover exceeds $1 trillion per day? Can the biggest banks and governments depend on "Chaos" - i.e., be dependable of the "off-floor" traders - such as me and you? Can these organizations be worried about the direction in which we (traders) could turn the trend of all national currencies at this or that second? It is ridiculous to imagine!
To realize the power of the grouping that has organized the "game" of Forex all over the world, we should refer to the thesis from the journal "Speculator". In June, 2001 the three biggest dealers at Forex market - Citibank, J.P. Morgan Chase и Deutsche Bank - together with Reuters Group PLC had started up the system Atriax . However, the latter did not meet competition and stopped operations in spring, 2002. The author of the paper just hinted that even the alliance of the 3 biggest world banks could not make any serious competition to Organizer of the "game" at Forex (to Consortium or somebody else).
In this connection, how one can take on trust the principal thesis by B. Williams concerning "Trading chaos" that rules Forex? What's important, all methods of this author issue from this postulate. The following conclusion by B. Williams's also raises doubts. He states that trends are created by traders, whereas brokers just realize these trends and place traders' orders. According to B. Williams, the fact that now trends are made rather "off-floor" than "on floor" (as it was earlier) permits detecting what next will happen at the market (see "Trading Chaos", Chapter 6).
So, to what extent can B. Williams's techniques be correct if their basis is principally erroneous? Let us enumerate the fundamental mistakes made in "Trading Chaos". It is necessary to facilitate understanding of the techniques and practical recommendations given by B. Williams concerning the work at Forex .
1. B. Williams sees Forex as a spontaneous market, uncontrollable by anybody. According to this author, it is chaos but not an organized system that would have its own strategy, tactic, techniques, goals, methods of fraud, etc.
2. B. Williams mentions the pair "trader + broker". However, unconsciously or deliberately, he has omitted the third participant of this very process. This is banks and the world financial system in general. Surely, this organization will not just take a detached view of the traders' arbitrary "game" with the basic world currencies (USD, EURO, GBP, CHF, etc.).
Let us now evolve B. Williams's idea by ourselves. Our aim is to demonstrate absurdity of his "chaos theory" applied to the up-to-date market of Forex.
· How brokers and banks market-makers can pay off profits from traders' deposits if the traders' total earnings would be bigger than the market-maker's profit in this period?
· Being in shoes of market-makers, National Banks, governments of leading countries of the world, etc., how will you conduct yourself on the eve of the news issue? For instance, after the publication of Michigan University Index, USD can "go up" by 150-200 points with respect to all national currencies. That is, in several hours dozens of milliards of USD will be redistributed. Somebody will earn the money, whereas somebody will lose it because of the difference in rates of exchange (quotations).
What will you do in the place of the biggest financial groupings? Would you just be sitting and taking sedative pills? Would you just be trying to guess what steps will be taken by professors of a Michigan University? Will 0.3% be added to the index previous value (91.4) or subtracted from it? What's important, this "difference" makes milliards of USD - for somebody! Possessing such capitals, would you just be sitting idly and waiting for God knows what? More probably, you will try to make this process controllable and predictable. Rather you will do your best to gain profit with the help of such indices and news. I think you will try to let the others lose their money.
· What does the theory of "chaos" at Forex represent by itself if Organizer of the "game" has trained all traders to act according to the stereotype?
a). To place stop-losses and postponed orders at the same places.
b). If the issued news are better than the prognostication, one must stake on "buy". Otherwise (if the news are worse than the prognostication), it is necessary to stake on "sell".
c). If a quicker moving average crosses the slower one upwards, the order must be opened on "buy". In the case of the downward crossover, the order must be opened on "sell".
d). In the case of divergence, one must try to work against the trend. B. Williams and other "classics" at least had to mention that it was basically absurd to work like this at the beginning of the trend and in the middle of it.
This is why the given chapter is named "Anti-trading chaos" - to be more precise, it is the anti-trading system.
Further I'll not dwell on absurdity of the chaos theory by B. Williams when applied to Forex . I hope it is quite clear. Any trader can find a lot of evidences of the fact that Forex is a controllable market. There are also many examples that prove fallacy of B. Williams's conclusion that traders form a trend and "push" it.
As I get it, the "game" of Forex and its rules in their essence are the following.
1. There is Organizer of the financial game (the Alligator) and participants (victims).
2. Organizer always tries to demonstrate: a). objectivity and honesty of the rules established by himself; b). simplicity of the analysis, predictability of the situations and the possibility of earning money easily and regularly by one of the numerous methods of the analysis (FA, TA, etc.).
3. All participants of the "game" are subjected to the same psychological treatment by Brokers, authors of numerical "classical" works on Forex and analysts via their sites and prognoses. That is, such specialists teach every trader to work as all others in the world do.
As the result, Organizer beforehand knows the traders' line of conduct in these or those situations. The percentage of "players"-losers is stable - about 90%.
4. A rapid growth in the number of fraudulent machinations developed by Brokers has become a logical continuation of the above-enumerated rules of the given game. Economists from Brokers have quickly grasped that the number 90% of traders-loses is very close to the figure 100%. What for will they send clients' transactions to the foreign market (the market-maker bank)? In fact, traders will lose all the same! Besides, it is possible to slightly "help" traders in their losing by "knocking down" stop-losses - all traders keep their stop-losses approximately at the same place. In addition, the following tricks can be done as well: the "slippage" (opening of transactions at a price much worse than the price at which the trader wanted to open the deal); computer "pending" at the beginning of the heavy movement in currency pairs. One can give many analogous examples - up to the undisguised fraudulent nonpayment of earned profits to traders.
These centers are also protected from the viewpoint of finances. If in flats the sums of orders of the traders who open transactions on "buy" and "sell" are approximately equal, Brokers can always hedge the difference between "buy" and "sell" with a market-maker under the condition of a heavy trend.
The only thing that cheats from Brokers are afraid of is the unmasking of methods of their work. Really, this will put an end to the afflux of new "victims"!
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